Weekly Global Economic Data and its Impact

Best Hedging Strategy For Importers, import port

US PPI MoM

This chart displays the monthly changes in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) from April 2020 to April 2024. The PPI measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Notably, April 2024 saw a 0.5% month-on-month increase, which was higher than the expected 0.3%. This followed a modest decrease of 0.1% in March 2024. The data exhibits fluctuations, with several peaks and troughs indicating varying inflationary pressures in the U.S. manufacturing sector. This visual analysis provides investors and economists insights into trends in factory gate prices, helping gauge economic health and inflationary trends in the United States.

India: CPI

US. Unemployment Rate

This chart tracks the U.S. unemployment rate from April 2020 through April 2024. Initially, the rate spiked dramatically in April 2020 to 14.7% due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, it shows a significant downward trend as the economy recovered, stabilizing around 3.5% to 3.9% in the latter period. The most recent data point in October 2023 shows an unemployment rate of 3.9%, a slight increase from the previous month’s 3.8%, which marginally exceeded market expectations. This visualization effectively illustrates the overall trend of recovery and stabilization in the U.S. labor market over the observed period.

US Non Farm Payrolls

This chart presents data on U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, showing the monthly job additions from April 2020 through April 2024. The figures represent the number of jobs added in thousands. April 2020 shows a significant job loss, depicted by the negative bar, while the following months show recovery and fluctuations in job growth. In April 2024, the economy added 175,000 jobs, which is a slowdown from the revised 315,000 jobs in March 2024, and below the market expectations of a 243,000 job increase. The chart is a visual representation of the employment changes over the period, highlighting the volatility and recovery in the U.S. job market.

India: CPI

India Fx Reserves $Bn

US CPI (YoY)

EUROZONE Core CPI (YoY)

The graph presents the year-over-year Eurozone core inflation trend, demonstrating a continuous decrease over an eight-month stretch, culminating in the lowest rate since early 2022. This data is vital for analysts tracking economic stability and forecasting financial markets in the region, offering insights into consumer price movements and central bank policy implications.

The chart displays the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation and Core CPI Inflation, illustrating a peak in inflation rates around November 2022. BOE increased interest rates which has successfully led to the softening of inflation gradually. 

In February 2024, the Euro Area’s annual inflation rate was 2.6%, above the ECB’s 2% goal. Energy prices fell by 3.7%, while food, alcohol, and tobacco costs rose by 3.9%, and non-energy industrial goods by 1.6%. Services inflation remained at 4.0%. The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy, was 3.1%. Monthly, consumer prices went up by 0.6% after January’s 0.4% decline.

This decrease in inflation has also risen the probabilities of a rate cut. While most policymakers favor a rate cut in June, some suggest April. Hawks like Schnabel and Lagarde warn against early cuts due to inflation concerns, advocating for a cautious approach to achieve the 2% target. Conversely, dovish members call for earlier cuts, pointing to significant disinflation and the risk of falling short of the inflation goal. The market is split, with a 50% probability assigned to an April rate reduction, indicating a disconnect with some ECB officials.

Eurozone Core CPI YoY

Eurozone CPI Inflation

India – GDP

India Fx Reserves $Bn

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY)

Eurozone CPI (YoY)

Inflation Rate

US Core CPI MoM

US Core CPI YoY

US CPI MoM

US CPI (YoY)

India: CPI

India Fx Reserves $Bn

India Fx Reserves $Bn

U.K. Interest Rate

Eurozone CPI (YoY)

India FX Reserves $Bn

 US Jobless Claims

 US Core CPI YoY

 US CPI MoM

 US CPI YoY

 U.K. Inflation Rate

 India FX Reserves $Bn

 Exports, Imports & Trade Deficit

India WPI

India Industrial Production & PMI

US CPI MoM

US CPI YoY

India: CPI

US CPI vs Core CPI YoY

Inflation – US & Other Countries

US Core CPI YoY

India Fx Reserves $Bn

India Goverment Bond 10Y

India Fx Reserves $Bn

India: GDP

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY)

Eurozone CPI (YoY)

FX Reserves $Bn

India FX Reserves $Bn

Eurozone CPI (YoY)

US Fed Balance Sheet

Exports, Imports & Trade Deficit(USD Bn)

India: CPI

India FX Reserves $Bn

US Core CPI MoM

US Core CPI YoY

US CPI MoM

US CPI YoY

India CPI YoY

Germany CPI YoY

US Fed Balance Sheet

India Interest Rate

Current Account Deficit

India FX Reserves $Bn

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY)

Eurozone CPI (YoY)

US Jobless Claims

India FX Reserves $Bn

The Foreign Exchange Reserves in India decreased to 593.04 Bn in Sep 16  from 593.90 Bn in the previous week.

U.K. Interest Rate

The Interest Rate in the UK is expected to be 5.25% by the end of this quarter.

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

Released on:- September 20, 2023

By:- The Federal Reserve System

To read the entire document tap on the link:- https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230920a.htm

The FOMC has nullified any hopes of rate cuts in the medium-term, which also means an inverted yield curve over a longer horizon. The inversion in the yield curve does not bode well for the economy and keeps open the possibility of a sharp recession.

US Interest Rate

The Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 5.50% by the end of this quarter.

European Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY- July 2023

GDP of Mexico- 2023

Interest Rate- July 2023

The Mexico Interest Rate Data is released from January 2015- July 2023. You can refer to it here.

CPI Index- July 2023

The Mexico CPI Index Data is released from January 2015- July 2023. You can refer to it here.

EUROZONE Interest Rate

India WPI

US Core CPI MoM

US CPI MoM

US Core CPI YoY

US CPI YoY

India: CPI

India FX Reserves $Bn

JAPAN GDP Growth Rate

EUROZONE GDP YoY

Australia GDP

US Unemployement Rate

US Non Farm Payrolls

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY)

EUROZONE Unemployement Rate

Eurozone CPI Inflation%

US: GDP

Germany CPI YoY

India Fx Reserves $Bn

US Jobless Claims

U.S. Building Permits

India Fx Reserves $Bn

US Building Permits

India: CPI

India WPI

Exports, Imports & Trade Deficit(USD Bn)

India FX Reserves $Bn

U.S. PPI (MoM)

U.K. GDP Annual Growth Rate

US Core CPI MoM

US Core CPI YoY

US CPI MoM

US CPI YoY

India- Interest Rate

China CPI 

Germany CPI YoY

India FX Reserves $Bn

US Non Farm Payrolls

US Unemployement Rate

U.K. Interest Rate

Inflation – US & Other Countries

EUROZONE Unemployement Rate

Australia Interest Rate

Eurozone GDP YoY

Eurozone CPI (YoY)

India FX Reserves $Bn

US: GDP

US Jobless Claims

EUROZONE Interest Rate

US Interest Rate

US Building Permits

India FX Reserves $Bn

US Jobless Claims

Australian Unemployement Rate

US Building Permits

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY)

U.K. Inflation Rate

Eurozone CPI (YoY)

Exports,Imports & Trade Deficit (USD Bn)

US CPI YoY

India Industrial Production (YoY)

India: CPI

US Unemployement Rate

US Non Farm Payrolls 

India FX Reserves $Bn

Germany CPI (YoY)

India CPI (YoY)

India’s annual rettail inflation eased to 5.88% in November of 2022, the lowest reading since December last year, and well below market forecasts of 6.4%

India FX Reserves $Bn

Foreign Exchange Reserves in India increased to 561.16 Bn in December 02 from 550.14 Bn in the previous week.

US Jobless Claims

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits edged higher by 4K to 230K in the week ending December 3rd, matching market expectations.

Japan GDP Growth Rate

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Japan expanded 1.80 percent in the third quarter of 2022 over the same quarter of the previous year.

EUROZONE GDP YoY

The Reserve Bank of India raised its key repo rate by 35 bps to 6.25% during its December meeting, the fifth rate hike in a row, amid slowing inflation due to moderation in food prices, as widely expected.

India: Interest Rate

The Reserve Bank of India raised its key repo rate by 35 bps to 6.25% during its December meeting, the fifth rate hike in a row, amid slowing inflation due to moderation in food prices, as widely expected.

Non Farm Payrolls in (000)

The US economy unexpected added 263k jobs in November of 2022, beating market forecasts of 200k, and following an upwardly revised 284k in October

US Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in the US was unchanged at 3.7% in November 2022, matching market expectations and remaining close to September’s 29-month low of 3.5%.

India FX Resrves $Bn

Foreign Exchange Reserves in India increased to 550.14 Bn in November 25 from 547.25 Bn in the previous week.

US Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims in the United States decreased to 225 thousand in the week ending November 26 of 2022 from 241 thousand in the previous week.

India FX Reserves $Bn

Foreign Exchange Reserves in India increased to 547.25 Bn in November 18 from 544.72 Bn in the previous week.

UK Interest Rate

The Bank of England voted by a majority of 7-2 to raise interest rates by 75 bps to 3% during its November meeting, the largest rate hike since 1989, increasing the cost of borrowing to the highest level since late-2008

Eurozone Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in Euro Area edged down to 6.6% in September of 2022 from a an upwardly revised 6.7% in the prior month, equaling the record low hit in July

US Interest Rate

The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 75bps to 3.75%-4% during its November 2022 meeting. It marks a sixth consecutive rate hike and the fourth straight three-quarter point increase, pushing borrowing costs to a new high since 2008.

Germany Unemployment Change

The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed people in Germany rose by 8 thousand from the previous month to 2.518 million in October 2022, below expectations of a 15 thousand addition.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October of 2022 from 50.9 in September, pointing to the slowest growth in factory activity since the contraction in mid 2020

US JOLTs Job Openings

The number of job openings in the United States rose by 437,000 to 10.72 million in September 2022, partially offsetting a sharp decline in August and easily beating market expectations of 10.0 million.

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY)

Core Inflation rate in Euro area which excludes prices for energy, food, alcohol & tobacco increased to a fresh record high of 5% in October of 2022 from 4.8% in September. Figures compare with market expectations of 4.9%

Eurozone GDP (YoY)

Annual inflation rate in the Euro Area continued to break record high levels and jumped to 10.7% in October of 2022 from 9.9% in September. Figures came higher than market forecasts of 10.2%, preliminary estimates showed.

EuroZone CPI (YoY)

Annual inflation rate in the Euro Area continued to break record high levels and jumped to 10.7% in October of 2022 from 9.9% in September. Figures came higher than market forecasts of 10.2%, preliminary estimates showed.

US GDP Growth Rate

The US economy grew an annualized 2.6% on quarter in Q3 2022, beating forecasts of a 2.4% rise and rebounding from a contraction in the first half of the year.

UK CPI(YoY)

The annual Inflation in the UK rose to 10.1% in Sepemeber of 2022 from 9.9% in August, returning to the 40 year high hit in July and surassing market expectations of 10% rate.

US Eurozone CPI(YoY)

The Eurozone Annual Inflation rate was revised down to 9.9% in September 2022 from a preliminary estimate of 10%. Still, it was the highest rate since comarable records began in 1991, as the euro hit a 20-year low and the bloc’s energy crisis deepened

US Jobless Claims

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 29,000 to 219.000 in the week that ended October 1st, jumping from the five-month low hit in the prior week and sharply above expectations of 203,000, suggesting some loosening in labor market conditions.

Exports, Imports & Trade Deficits(USD Bn)

Trade deficit continues to be above 25 bn mark at 26.7 bn.

India FX Reserves $Bn

Foreign Exchange Reserves in India decreased to 537.52 Bn in September 23 from 545.65 Bn in the previous week.

EUROZONE CPI (YoY)

Annual inflation rate in the Euro Area jumped to 10% in September of 2022 from 9.1% in August, reaching double-digits for the first time ever, preliminary estimates showed

US Jobless Claims

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 193,000 in the week that ended September 24, the lowest since the end of April and well below market expectations of 215,000.

US GDP Growth Rate

The US economy contracted an annualized 0.6% on quarter in Q2 2022, matching the second estimate, and confirming the economy technically entered a recession, following a 1.6% drop in Q1.

India FX Reserves $Bn

Foreign Exchange Reserves in India decreased to 545.65 Bn on September 16 from 550.87 Bn in the previous week.

US Jobless Claims

In the week ending September 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 5,000 from 213,000 to 208,000.

US Interest Rate

The Fed raised the federal funds rate by 75 bps to the 3%-3.25% range during its September meeting, the third straight three-quarter point increase and pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2008.

US Existing Home Sales

Existing home sales in the US edged 0.4% lower to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.8 million in August of 2022, the lowest reading since May of 2020, and following a downwardly revised 5.7% drop in July.

Dollar Index

The dollar index approached 111 on Wednesday, the highest level since June of 2002, amid flight to safety as the war in Ukraine is set to escalate after President Putin announced a partial military mobilization in Russia while investors await the FOMC decision later in the day The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver another outsized interest rate hike of 75bps and signal a strong commitment to bringing down inflation. The central bank will also release quarterly projections for inflation, the economy, and the future path of interest rates, with markets betting interest rates will rise further this year and next.

US Building Permits

Building permits in US, a proxy for future construction, tumbled 10% to an annualized rate of 1.517 million in August of 2022, well below market expectations of 1.61 million.

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